摘 要

       “茶马古道”以茶马互市而生，兴于唐宋，盛于明清。沿线有随地理环境变化而产生的丰富自然景观和大量民族特色的文化遗存。然而，目前面临着地震、水土流失、病虫害、茶园面积减少、道路密度过高等自然人文双重风险，使得茶马古道的生态、文化受到严重损失。文本以普洱“茶马古道”为研究对象，结合风险评价理论和茶马古道历史文化背景，探讨了茶马古道生态文化综合风险评价模型构建的方法。研究内容和主要结论如下：
（1）区域综合风险概率的空间分布。选取影响茶马古道风险的自然风险源：海拔、地震、干旱、洪涝、水土流失、病虫害、滑坡泥石流；与人文风险源：耕地面积增率、茶园面积减少、非物质遗产文化、物质遗产文化、道路密度、古镇面积比、化肥使用、林地减少等作为主要风险源，通过计算分析得到区域的综合风险概率，得出综合风险概率在区域内中间高，东西低的总体格局。
（2）区域生态损失值的空间分异：通过景观优势度指数、景观结构指数、景观破碎度指数、景观分离度指数、景观脆弱度指数以及景观损失指数这六种景观格局指数来度量。得出高损失度区主要位于思茅区中西部、澜沧东部和江城南部地区，低损失度区主要位于景谷中部、镇沅部分地区和景东大部分地区。
（3）生态文化风险值的空间分异：通过拟合综合风险概率和生态损失度值得出高风险区位于思茅、宁洱地区，低风险区位于孟连、澜沧、江城、镇沅、景谷区域；利用地理加权回归模型分析得到不同地理位置主要受到的风险源影响的分析结果：物质遗产因子的影响范围最大，主要影响中部和南部大部地区；地震的影响范围位于西部和北部，其它风险因子的影响力面积低于10%，在区域各处均有分布。
在普洱茶马古道生态文化综合风险的研究上，基于自然与文化双重因子的分析，采用区域生态风险评价模型与地理加权模型的结合，使得研究结果与现状有较高的拟合度，在方法上完善了现有的生态风险评价研究，并为今后“茶马古道”的保护、相关法律的制定提供依据和指导作用。
关键词：“茶马古道”；综合风险评价；地理加权回归模型；生态与文化；普洱

Abstract

“The Ancient Tea Horse Road” was a network of caravan paths winding through the mountains of Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou in Southwest China， which prospered in Tang and Song Dynasty and reached its heyday in Ming and Qing Dynasty. The abundant natural landscapes and cultural relics of national characteristics have come into being with the geographical and environmental changes along the road. However, the ecotope and culture of the road have suffered severe damage by the natural and cultural risks, such as earthquake, water and soil loss, higher road density, etc. This paper takes “The Ancient Tea Horse Road” in Puer City as the object, with the risk evaluation theory and the historical and cultural background of the road, to explore the method to construct the eco-culture comprehensive risk evaluation model of “The Ancient Tea Horse Road”.  
(1) The spatial distribution of the regional comprehensive risk probability. Selecting the natural risk sources: altitude, earthquake, drought, flood, water and soil loss, plant diseases and insect pests, landslide and mud-rock flow; the cultural risk sources: agricultural acreage gaining rate, the tea garden area, intangible heritage culture, material heritage culture, road density,ancient town area ratio, the usage of chemical fertilizer, decreasing forest land, we have worked out the regional comprehensive risk probability by computational analysis, then found the overall pattern of the comprehensive risk probability-- high in the central region and low in the eastern and western region.  
(2) The spatial variation of regional ecological loss：Selecting the six landscape pattern indexes-- landscape dominance index, landscape structural index, landscape fragmentation index, landscape separation index, landscape vulnerable degree index and landscape loss index as the measurements, we have found that the regions of high loss index locate in the Midwest of Simao district, the East of Lancang, the South of Jiangcheng and the regions of low loss index are located in the central part of Jinggu, parts of Zhenyuan and most parts of Jingdong.
（3）The spatial variation of eco-culture comprehensive risk index: Through the comprehensive risk probability and ecotope loss index, we have found that high risk regions are located in Simao and Ninger district, low risk regions locate in Menglian, Lancang, Jiangcheng, Zhenyuan and Jinggu district; analyzing the geographical weighting regression model, we have found that the results of different geographical locations influenced by risk resources: material heritage factors influence the most, mainly in most parts of the central and northern region; the regions of earthquake influence are located in western and northern part. And the influencing are of other risk factors is only less than 10% which locate in everywhere of the region.
On this study, basing on the analysis of natural and cultural factors and adopting the combination of ecological risk evaluation model and geographical weighting regression model lead to a higher degree of fitting of the research results and current situation, complete the method of the ecological risk evaluation research and provide the basis for the protecting and rafting the protection relevant laws of  “The Ancient Tea Horse Road”.

Key Words: "The ancient tea-horse road", comprehensive risk evaluation, Geographically Weighted Regression, Ecological and Culture, Pu'er

普洱“茶马古道”生态文化综合风险评价研究.pdf (8.26 MB, 下载次数: 0)

2016-6-27 21:37 上传

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摘 要

       “茶马古道”以茶马互市而生，兴于唐宋，盛于明清。沿线有随地理环境变化而产生的丰富自然景观和大量民族特色的文化遗存。然而，目前面临着地震、水土流失、病虫害、茶园面积减少、道路密度过高等自然人文双重风险，使得茶马古道的生态、文化受到严重损失。文本以普洱“茶马古道”为研究对象，结合风险评价理论和茶马古道历史文化背景，探讨了茶马古道生态文化综合风险评价模型构建的方法。研究内容和主要结论如下：
（1）区域综合风险概率的空间分布。选取影响茶马古道风险的自然风险源：海拔、地震、干旱、洪涝、水土流失、病虫害、滑坡泥石流；与人文风险源：耕地面积增率、茶园面积减少、非物质遗产文化、物质遗产文化、道路密度、古镇面积比、化肥使用、林地减少等作为主要风险源，通过计算分析得到区域的综合风险概率，得出综合风险概率在区域内中间高，东西低的总体格局。
（2）区域生态损失值的空间分异：通过景观优势度指数、景观结构指数、景观破碎度指数、景观分离度指数、景观脆弱度指数以及景观损失指数这六种景观格局指数来度量。得出高损失度区主要位于思茅区中西部、澜沧东部和江城南部地区，低损失度区主要位于景谷中部、镇沅部分地区和景东大部分地区。
（3）生态文化风险值的空间分异：通过拟合综合风险概率和生态损失度值得出高风险区位于思茅、宁洱地区，低风险区位于孟连、澜沧、江城、镇沅、景谷区域；利用地理加权回归模型分析得到不同地理位置主要受到的风险源影响的分析结果：物质遗产因子的影响范围最大，主要影响中部和南部大部地区；地震的影响范围位于西部和北部，其它风险因子的影响力面积低于10%，在区域各处均有分布。
在普洱茶马古道生态文化综合风险的研究上，基于自然与文化双重因子的分析，采用区域生态风险评价模型与地理加权模型的结合，使得研究结果与现状有较高的拟合度，在方法上完善了现有的生态风险评价研究，并为今后“茶马古道”的保护、相关法律的制定提供依据和指导作用。
关键词：“茶马古道”；综合风险评价；地理加权回归模型；生态与文化；普洱

Abstract

“The Ancient Tea Horse Road” was a network of caravan paths winding through the mountains of Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou in Southwest China， which prospered in Tang and Song Dynasty and reached its heyday in Ming and Qing Dynasty. The abundant natural landscapes and cultural relics of national characteristics have come into being with the geographical and environmental changes along the road. However, the ecotope and culture of the road have suffered severe damage by the natural and cultural risks, such as earthquake, water and soil loss, higher road density, etc. This paper takes “The Ancient Tea Horse Road” in Puer City as the object, with the risk evaluation theory and the historical and cultural background of the road, to explore the method to construct the eco-culture comprehensive risk evaluation model of “The Ancient Tea Horse Road”.  
(1) The spatial distribution of the regional comprehensive risk probability. Selecting the natural risk sources: altitude, earthquake, drought, flood, water and soil loss, plant diseases and insect pests, landslide and mud-rock flow; the cultural risk sources: agricultural acreage gaining rate, the tea garden area, intangible heritage culture, material heritage culture, road density,ancient town area ratio, the usage of chemical fertilizer, decreasing forest land, we have worked out the regional comprehensive risk probability by computational analysis, then found the overall pattern of the comprehensive risk probability-- high in the central region and low in the eastern and western region.  
(2) The spatial variation of regional ecological loss：Selecting the six landscape pattern indexes-- landscape dominance index, landscape structural index, landscape fragmentation index, landscape separation index, landscape vulnerable degree index and landscape loss index as the measurements, we have found that the regions of high loss index locate in the Midwest of Simao district, the East of Lancang, the South of Jiangcheng and the regions of low loss index are located in the central part of Jinggu, parts of Zhenyuan and most parts of Jingdong.
（3）The spatial variation of eco-culture comprehensive risk index: Through the comprehensive risk probability and ecotope loss index, we have found that high risk regions are located in Simao and Ninger district, low risk regions locate in Menglian, Lancang, Jiangcheng, Zhenyuan and Jinggu district; analyzing the geographical weighting regression model, we have found that the results of different geographical locations influenced by risk resources: material heritage factors influence the most, mainly in most parts of the central and northern region; the regions of earthquake influence are located in western and northern part. And the influencing are of other risk factors is only less than 10% which locate in everywhere of the region.
On this study, basing on the analysis of natural and cultural factors and adopting the combination of ecological risk evaluation model and geographical weighting regression model lead to a higher degree of fitting of the research results and current situation, complete the method of the ecological risk evaluation research and provide the basis for the protecting and rafting the protection relevant laws of  “The Ancient Tea Horse Road”.

Key Words: "The ancient tea-horse road", comprehensive risk evaluation, Geographically Weighted Regression, Ecological and Culture, Pu'er

普洱“茶马古道”生态文化综合风险评价研究.pdf (8.26 MB, 下载次数: 0)

2016-6-27 21:37 上传

点击文件名下载附件
论文参赛